Sunday, 15 January 2012

Peter F. Sale - Our Dying Planet: An Ecologist's View of the Crisis We Face

or (In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is King.)
Up, Down, Postscript. 
Our Dying Planet: An Ecologist's View of the Crisis We Face.Peter Sale.Peter Sale.Peter Sale.Peter Sale.Peter Sale.Five Stars!Peter Sale - Our Dying Planet: An Ecologist's View of the Crisis We Face from University of California Press. Watch his schedule for upcoming events. More links previously here & here.

Don't let the subtitle of this post fool you. The book is important - I said that already, right? And the man too. So, get it, read it, make your own evaluation and see where it may take you.

The modus operandi here is basically ad hominem with no correctitude (and no cranberry sauce either!). Best to state that up-front. There are reasons - defensible and indefensible; and implications - mostly structural (including that the reader figures into it as well as the author with just a slight concommitant blurring of the subject/object split); ... for another time.

There are a few key notions (of mine): 1) An english-lit lecturer, a good friend, now dead; last thing he told me (I thought he was crazy!) was that Homo sapiens has split in two: H. grǽdum, greedy human, and H. agapiens, loving human; and telling them apart at this early stage is tricky;    2) It's see CO2 emissions level off flat by 2015 or what follows is no more than a protracted dénouement - and a brutal one - make Gloucester's fate in Lear look like the teddy-bear's picnic!; and,    3) Any sensible person familiar with 'the science' around this issue has despaired already (but that doesn't mean they've quite given up).

So, how does Peter Sale fit into this ridiculous & arbitrary framework?


[I am having a hard time with this. I know the next step is to scan the relevant pages, tune them up carefully into HTML, figgure out where and how they will fit ... but the energy is just not coming. It will come, eventually, maybe.

Where did that awful subtitle come from? What a thing to say! "In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is King." WTF!? Are you nuts!? (Am I nuts?) There it is. No one sets out to end up here do they? I am thinking of the 13th fairy in Sleeping Beauty and of all the praeterite who have fallen through every crack in every system ever invented; I am thinking of Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, the bit where he fills the tires to 200psi as the gas-station attendant backs away - Hillarious! Mad!

I want to say to this guy Peter, "Ok man, let's go to the Gateway hearings and stage a hunger strike on the steps outside and hope for snow."

An hour goes by ... I find myself apologizing (to myself) for being unequal to the task ... and for trying to hide it under a rug of self-indulgent froth. OK then ... no scanning; I will just put page & location references in a few places and you can take me at my word on the rest or follow up as you wish (which I doubt anyway).] 
On the up side: I do love it when a Canadian refers to Canada as 'there' (page 250, top). If the sun shines out of his arse (which I do not even suggest) at least it's not because he's a Canadian (eh?).

On the down side: he is associated with the UN and presumably takes their coin and accepts their imprimatur, or at least operates under their banner side-by-each.

Do we have to wait until Rio+20 and COP18 in Qatar prove as complete flops & fiascoes as Durban & Cancún & Copenhagen & Bonn & & & & & & & ... before there is a collective shout of ¡YA BASTA! for the United Nations Cluster FCCC and all of its gorgeous acronyms and squandered budgets and self-congratulatory posing?

Yvo de Boer did it well and proper. He gave the UN his very all (which is exceedingly clever AND substantive AND indefatigable), wept in public (which I do not view lightly in such a man), and then moved on. If KPMG is truely a force for good remains to be seen - I would guess not, but if Yvo guesses differently then ... I'm listening.

Population numbers: People keep repeating something about a curve that goes to 9.2 billion in 2050, deriving apparently from some UN bean-counter. Can no one but me see that this is utter nonsense? The whole shitteree is going bust long before we reach 9 billion. There will never be 9 billion. Maybe there will be 3 or 4 (or five or six?) billion stacked up like cordwood somewhere, and probably not just in one place either - could be close to home wherever you are, could be closer to home than you would like.

He goes on a bit about how mentioning population is politically incorrect. There is even a hint that he had to be persuaded to put the population chapter in at all. Well, yes, it is easily prone to misinterpretation and so on, touchy - so spell it out explicitly then, clearly, 'Say it plain!' - but the time for correctitude is long passed. And having once brought population growth to its proper place in the scheme of things - think about it and get it right.

I will go to the trouble of scanning one paragraph (page 80 bottom-81 top):
     Much of this continuous rain of energy does not reach the earth's surface because it is reflected into space or absorbed by the atmosphere. In addition, particular sites on Earth are variously experiencing night or day, cloud cover or clear skies, and variable inclinations toward the sun. As a consequence, the average rate of receipt of solar energy at a specific site on the earth's surface is about 0.250 kilowatts per square meter continuously throughout the year, or about 32,000 terawatts for the entire earth. To put these numbers into perspective, of the 174,000 terawatts of energy arriving from the sun, only 18.3 percent (32,000 terawatts) gets through the atmosphere and reaches the earth's surface. Of this 18.3 percent, all photosynthesis uses just 0.06 percent (100 terawatts). The rest (18.2 percent) moves water around the hydrologic cycle, generates winds and therefore weather, and dissipates as heat. At present, humans are consuming about 13 terawatts of energy at any particular moment; if all this came directly from sunlight, we would be using just 0.007 percent of what reaches the earth's surface. I'll repeat my point: there is way more than enough energy arriving on the surface of the earth every day to provide for all our current energy needs, so the amount of energy we use is not the problem.
It pales a bit taken out of context, but as I read it the first time I was suddenly 'in the presence' of a skilled teacher making a point clearly - pellucidly! Maybe you had to be there ... maybe you will see what I mean ... I hope so.

My copy now has many such passages marked; just as well perhaps that it is not in the library yet.

There is a lot of guff about how scientists cannot communicate this or that. Well, this guy can certainly communicate when he wants to. Sure, you do have to actually read it, pay attention, want to hear, and so on.

Chapter 5 - The Problem of Shifting Baselines, is the very best I have seen on exactly why humankind are dithering while Rome burns.

On the other hand, he tells us the book is pitched for the 'general reader'. All good, and at least he does not mean the 'general audience' that knuckleheads like Billy-We-Won McKibben go on about.

But words like 'pelagic', 'benthic'; phrases like 'a simple model of a distributed set of open local populations' are moving beyond the 'general reader' I know. Even the young lovelies with recent degrees from UofT seem able to read only what is on the syllabus, and then only in groups and to the extent necessary and so on. Two of my children with university degrees cannot spell - and don't want to and don't care - a complicated mess.

And it is a complicated nexus of issues in the public realm as well: from declining standards of education & literacy in 'the West' to the arrogant war on libraries now going on in Toronto The Good.

Maybe it is best to cut your losses and say what you mean as well as you are able to say it (which is about what Peter Sale does in this book in my estimation). Still, it wouldn't hurt to tell the competent general readers out there that they may have to stretch a bit and to be patient and read on if they can't.

That said, it is not Kant; it is not Simon wazizname (?) ... Critchley. It is not incomprehensible even when it is difficult.

Oh, and yes, there are other parts I have scrawled question marks beside, marked 'vague' - OK, he's not Winston Churchill (though I wish he was).

Does he protest too much? Or too little? And is it telling?

When he expresses an opinion on an issue on his own turf (it seems to me) he says he is "out on a very thin limb here" (page 162, top-ish) - but when he lays out several chapters of energy analysis and policy which is certainly not in his bailiwick, there is no caveat whatsoever. (?)

I don't mean that it is not a good idea to deal with the energy issues - obviously it is. Given the recent IEA report and so on. If you are going to avoid the moral and aesthetic quagmires (for one reason and another) then using the economics of energy is an adult thing to do.

As for the 'telling', you may plumb that as you will.

On the business of CO2 emission deadlines he seems to know very well what's what but then seems to soft-pedal it. 'Soon' and 'very soon' and 'right away or else' figure in there, but I didn't see a clearly stated target.

FLATTEN THE CO2 CURVE BY 2015 OR WE'RE COOKED!    That's what I'd like to see from someone 'with authority' but what comes instead is mostly equivocation.

Ahh maybe it is ... the delicate issue of appearance: beautiful/handsome people, fit, fed, fortunate (and smart of course), nurtured by bourgeois assumptions and conventional success - it's an internal landscape with a lot of inertia (and in Canada too, where temperature often augments viscosity).

(I will not go into the Probus connection though it bears on this. Surely you can figgure that one out.)

So, no, I am not expecting to be shoulder-to-shoulder with our Peter on an environmental front-line near you anytime soon (but yes, possibly later on, who knows?). I would like to be. I would be honoured to be. In the way that I went to Washington last summer thinking, "If that sumbitch James Hansen can go there with prostate cancer then I c'n damwell go with bad feet!"
 
He has not ascended into the front rank in my 'pantheon of saints' (you don't get there in one step): Noam Chomsky, Gwynne Dyer, James Hansen, Hannah Arendt, Northrop Frye, Naomi Oreskes, Charles Taylor, others ... but he's headed in that direction, along with David Schindler, Graham Saul, even Naomi Klein (and again, others). That's something - there are so few adults in the room that the addition of one more, even tentatively, is ... gladdening, heart warming. 
I am (now) confused about the relationship between species & the ecosystem they live within. I thought certain species were key and that when they were removed (by extinction say) the system would suffer greatly and risk collapse. I am not an ecologist so my notions are bound up in metaphors like 'the keystone of the arch' the 'web of life' and the 'fabric of the network'. An arch collapses when the keystone goes. A small tear in fabric can make a large rip. An unravelling hole in a sweater or a sock gets inevitably bigger. And having been both a Newfie cod-choker and a maker of tensegrities I thought I knew something about twine & nets & wholistic systems - there was a time I could knit the 'wit' for a lobster trap.

But what Peter is saying (in Chapter 7 p224-5) is that it is more like a gradual dilution as species within an ecosystem disappear - with no dramatic moment of collapse for the ecosystem itself.

Time for a re-think. Good. 
The Exciters.Manfred Mann.I think we need a musical interlude so here's Do Wah Diddy: The original 1963 version by The Exciters (black women singing about a man), and the 1964 cover, Manfred Mann (white guys singing about a woman). A Make-or-Break engine does have a piece of gear called an 'exciter'.

Certain weak arguments are used to effectively dismiss the Woodstock & Technopolis scenarios, and there is a lack of detail, depth, in New Atlantis. Does this reveal anything important? A desire to get it out the door and be done with it? Is that it? Or possibly a disrespecting bias against hippies & nerds? Wanting their 15 minutes of show-off on the stage and getting it; but no more, neither a jot alone nor a jot joined (coupled?) with a tittle.

I don't know.

Sometimes I think people feel they must put something positive forward, some hope to shore up against despair, some feasible or plausible program - but it may be false to the extent that they step up to it before they have fully drained the cup. I have seen Elizabeth May do this a few times in speeches; try to end on a hopeful note and fail dismally because she may not really feel it herself. There is a lot of fear of despair - an assumption that it inevitably leads to paralysis. (Someone who doesn't do this is Lester Brown.) And the attempt to formulate something without the necessary & proper antecedents doesn't quite come off.

I'm just guessing.

But this ain't Sunday School Toto. I think we all need to tell it like it is, unvarnished, messy, vulnerable - incomplete, fragmentary, even just plain wrong. Bob says, "The naked truth is still taboo wherever it may be seen." I guess it's time to take a step or two past our Bob then eh?

Creeping secularism and the ubiquitous pussy-foot do-si-do parlay around anything teleological; spiritual spelunking by debutante dilettanti (with 'Titles' in someone's 'Catalogue', with 'Literary Agents').

Christopher Hitchens & Richard Dawkins ... Bertrand Russell, on the one side, and C.S. Lewis & Chris Hedges and others on the other; shouting back and forth. Who cares? (Everyone of course! It is as fundamental to wonder about God as it is to wonder about where you will shit - but perhaps these are personal matters.)

There was a cartoon I wish I still had, Backbench I think: two men on a battlefield are shouting at one another; "RUDE!" shouts one, "CAD!" shouts the other, all bold caps; and in the final frame two soldiers are talking; one says "Any casualties today?" and the other replies, "Just a couple'a sore throats."

Exaggerated sensibility around other people's possible faith is one of the the canaries in my ideological coal mine - and there are traces of it in this book. If someone's faith holds water, if it washes, then they will not likely be offended by anything much anyone else could say; or even do in some cases.

But ... not everyone has Blake's perspicacity around such things - see A Poison Tree aka Christian Forbearance.

From a similar promontory in this flat swamp of a landscape comes an appreciation of Peter's several jabs at urban virtual consciousness. The city muggles do not know how to drive in the snow. They do not know anything much at all on a physical level: how to sharpen a chain saw; how to get a pig into the back of a pickup; how to save yourself and your beloved from freezing when you are caught out in the open in an early spring rain on the Newfoundland barrens ...

And from another nearby (these are promontories of less than a metre in height y'unnerstan') comes recognition of grandchildren, their uses and abuses.

I like James Hansen. A lot. Mensch. Still, reading his book Storms of my Grandchildren I began to sense some soft ground (having learned about soft ground from my father as we trod the floating margins of boggy lakes digging up pitcher plants to take back to our garden in Toronto for my mother who wanted to see them there - ridiculous! they never grew though we tried again and again) and made an item in the circular file that I named 'Grand-daughterism' at the time. I have a grandson now too so I have revised it to 'Grandchildrenism'.

Like my mother before me I mean something physical when I say 'love' - a naïve stance but there it is - and for me, loving my children and theirs has never included using them in a moral argument (or any other way). Not something that falls out of an ideology; a fact, an infolding.

You can figgure the rest of this out for yourself if you are inclined.

Did I mention the evident care and attention that went into this book? The (more than several) years spent writing it? The almost total lack of typos? The use of actual black ink? (Okok, thank goodness the type is black because it is a bit small, and the footnote font is all but illegible to me - I have to really strain to read the footnotes - so thanks for the black.)

Did I praise the overall shape of the argument?

I said it is an important book. That means it is helpful to me personally as I try to find my way; in advancing a notion, or a self-confidence, or an understanding - of where to go from here or of how to go from here across a terrain so ruined     ...    
[Well, I find I can't finish this sentence ... (?)] 
Conclusion #1 (I will make like John Fowles with The French Lieutenant's Woman and put three endings):

So ... what is Peter up to with this book? I can only guess and you may be able to guess much better than I - fill yer boots! Can I make a general statement? Not really; but if I were to try it might go something like this (being what has become slightly less murky since Peter's book arrived in the mail from my sister a month or so ago; what has come ever so slightly into better focus):
My friend's evaluation of my work (in 1969) was "Things that love night love not such nigh(t)s as these," one character half-removed from this (which I still take as a compliment); and of myself his evaluation was 'febrile' (a word I did not know the meaning of at the time). I know it surprised him to learn, quite near the end, just how much these two points mean to me - that I treasure them.

I have attended so many events here in Toronto in the last three+ years and watched how the nutbars and reprobates are professionally stick-handled to the sidelines. And it always makes me think of this: "... brushing from whom the stiffened puke i put him all into my arms and staggered banged with terror through a million billion trillion stars." Which does indeed bring us round again by a commodious vicus of recirculation (here) to the Good Samaritan and Environs.
What a surprise! :-)What a surprise eh? (Hardly.)     ...     Here, you could start here for example, or even here; or here with Auden's "We must love one another or die."

Without the least interference by any transcendent being wise or otherwise, without magic or miracle, with no divine principle in play and with no exalted Gaia or other goddess overseeing the action - it could all change, as they say, in a twinkling.

A-and that, gentle reader, is something about the human heart that everyone knows (without the fear of contradiction).

Get this book and read it. It is helpful.


[The guy at the back with the 'round jeer for a hat' would be me, ignore him.]

Be well. 
Conclusion #2 (& #3?):

At about the time in 2005 when I was starting this blog (from an office on one of the top floors of the KBR Tower in Houston, with a clear view - in at least several dimensions - of the by-then-empty Enron buildings downtown), Peter Sale was already writing Our Dying Planet: An Ecologist's View of the Crisis We Face.

Neither of us quite accomplished what we set out to do I don't think; in any event they were probably very different things - though Peter has done better by orders-of-magnitude - that's plural, at least 100x then and more like 10,000x. Is it putting on airs to make such a comparison? I don't think so. I hope not.

The record of a 'fair witness' then? A message for our grandchildren that we did not (entirely) sell them out? Something like that?

Except ... comforting as it is to do your part it's not enough. It's not working. (!!!) I have known for a year and more that we will have to go to the wall.

And who the hell wants to do that? 
Conclusion #3:

There is a lot going on (99.44% on the interior and not necessarily floating) and I am overwhelmed; so write this all off as a more-or-less gentle and harmless old madman with too much time on his hands sinking into a dream of fair women (or trying to).

And anyway, it was begun on Friday the 13th and the Ides of January, during the first bit of snow in Toronto this winter - it's bound to be silly.

But here, try this on for silly: the two species of human, H. grǽdum & H. agapiens, as place-markers for those psychological states Northrop Frye mentions when discussing Pynchon in Double Vision:
"In interviews I am almost invariably asked at some point whether I feel optimistic or pessimistic about some contemporary situation. The answer is that these imbecile words are euphemisms for manic-depressive highs and lows, and that anyone who struggles for sanity avoids both."
A struggle I seem to be losing, what with the imbecile part so clearly on display an' all. Oh well.

I purchased another copy which I will send on to Peter Kent when it arrives. As I think about it I see that I maybe should have got one for Mardi Tindal too, given their memorable interaction in Durban - but I sent her a book once before and she never read it as far as I know ... so skip that.

They are wilful children these people - can't spell and refuse to learn - what can you do with them? How can you think if you don't want to learn? I don't know. 
Postscript:

As I finish fixing typos and excising or toning down the really really egregiously silly stuff, the last Durban candle has finally gone out. Almost two boxes of candles this year from the Dollar Store downstairs, lighting the way for my fingers on this keyboard through the shortening days and long dark nights. It was not quite a conscious decision y'unnerstan'; more of a symptom of lifestyle choices - in the end I just ... forgot to light the next one. Anyway, the days are getting longer.

I guess this can be reasonably included in that list of mine; so here's Alzheimer's
'Vantage #9: However (approximately) perfect are your offerings and obsessive-compulsive rituals, they will all be forgotten - easily, lightly, naturally - with no regret.

Wengechi Mutu by Marilyn Minter.Wengechi Mutu by Marilyn Minter.Wengechi Mutu by Marilyn Minter.Wengechi Mutu by Marilyn Minter.
[The news is all bad: Stephen Harper & his sycophant sleveens, including Alberta Premier Alison Redford, are frustrated that the Gateway hearings may actually be hear-ings and are stamping their feet in pique, throwing unseemly tantrums nevermind how cunningly they've stacked the deck; while the mainstream press publishes photographs of First Nations people with mournfully aggrieved expressions wearing funny hats, and of ageing (now affluent) hippie couples wearing Birkenstocks. Drilling regulations are quickly re-written to permit Chevron & Statoil full access to the Beaufort Sea. An eminent arithmetician has figgured out that 30% annual loss of honeybees cannot be sustained - not even if Bayer says it is OK - and someone else thinks this may not be good for food production prospects; while one in seven on this planet, our Terra, goes to bed hungry.

I am thinking of Milo Minderbinder offering his messmate 'shareholders' a tray of chocolate-covered Egyptian cotton balls - but it's crude oil & coal dust this time not chocolate, and ... the image morphs to something else as I am distracted by a gracious muse (uma querida bênção) carrying to me not a nightmare, no, but, something else ... and I go off to re-read Pynchon's 1960 story of Callisto & Aubade - Entropy.]
Fuck man! If we are gonna fix this we had better get our damn thumbs out!

Doonesbury, Friday January 13 2011.Doonesbury, Friday January 13 2011.Doonesbury did this one on Friday 13th. Caught my eye. ("I was made on a Friday and ya' can't fix me!")

Wrong again! :-)I thought 'Angry Birds' must be a reference to that Alfred Hitchcock movie ... 
Down.

Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Kid stuff. Kid's stuff. Kids' stuff.

Genuine? or, authentic? or ... not.
Up, Down.

Our Dying Planet: An Ecologist's View of the Crisis We Face.Peter Sale.Peter Sale.Peter Sale.Five Stars!Peter F. Sale - Our Dying Planet from University of California Press; and at Amazon.ca, Amazon US, & Abe's. (But still not at the Toronto Public Library?) Watch his schedule for upcoming events. More links previously here & here.

The next post will contain a (probably lame & incomprehensible) review of this important book.

The Chords.The Crew Cuts.Sh-boom, sh-boom, ya-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da."

The Chords, one-hit wonders from the Bronx, discovered playing in a subway station; and The Crew Cuts, coming out of a more-or-less exclusive choir school in Toronto.

Sh-boom: A hit for The Chords in March 1954 - here & here; and a hit again for The Crew Cuts in July/August - here. The lyric quoted above is from The Crew Cuts' version.

Life could be a dream ...

(Keep in mind that in those days the 'sh-boom' imagery hearkened to recent events in Hiroshima & Nagasaki ... Bikini Atoll, Enewetak, and so on. Turns out 1954 was also the year in which Endosulfan/Thiodan/Thionex was registered by Farbwerke Hoechst A.G. aka IG Farben aka Sanofi-Aventis aka Bayer - and there are still enthusiasts.)

'Authentic' carries the baggage of individualism, 'genuine' doesn't; but 'genuine' has been thoroughly abused and worn out by barkers & shills, Madison Avenue; nonetheless, either of them could be redeemed in, say, a ... twinkling?

O Gato Malhado e a Andorinha SinháHoban, Frances.In the 40's Jorge Amado writes a story; a good one - you have no idea what is going to happen until the very last page. O Gato Malhado e a Andorinha Sinhá / 'The Swallow and the Tom Cat' - illustrated by Carybé with an anatomically-complete cat; this is also good.

In the 60's Russell Hoban and his (then) wife Lillian start a series of 'Frances' stories. I have read one of them, 'Best Friends for Frances' which is mystifyingly asexual and cloyingly correct. You can't go generalizing from a single book - except that years ago I read Russell Hoban carefully - 'Mouse and His Child' is among the top-three, 'Riddley Walker' surmounts the handicap of an invented language ... and so on ... Anyway, they divorced (not that that answers my quibble).

Arthur Dove - detail from Red Sun 1935.Grace Jones.Anne Tyng's spiral spatial development notions given to me sometime in the 70's; and, ... two girls dancing samba on the beach road in Ipanema in the early oughts with golden spirals around their breasts (Wowzers!).

And somewhere in-between, under that yet-to-be-conceived-of rainbow, building the twenty-four armed star of tetrahelix spirals whose axes pass through a single tetrahedron and almost establish the vertices of a small-rhombicuboctahedron - inventing a whole graphic software with the matrices necessary to construct one tetrahedron upon the face of another and then view it any how. I always meant to go back and build it again as a tensegrity; never did, lost the software.

Anne Tyng, sketch for Inhabiting Geometry.
Anne Tyng, sketch for Inhabiting Geometry.
Woman named Zola with 'Haiti' written on her shirt.
[Ah! She died last year and is now beginning to have a presence on the Internet: at Wikipedia; & a portion at least of her 1969 paper Geometric Extensions of Consciousness; a video in San Francisco - with a view of Alkatraz - in April 2011, 5 Chapters (8 minutes); and another at Harvard in October (70 minutes). Possibly (only) emphasizing (too much) the trivial aspects that remain and leaving just ... modes of saying goodbye.]

John Carroll knows something; and his wife Maria Carroll brings a complementary view; both divide their time between Peoria Illinois & Haiti.

When I read that some, many, are fleeing to Brasil (see Haitians Take Arduous Path to Brazil in the NYT) ... even being better received there than they would be in, say, Canada or the US; still an' all it seems to me tragic & unnecessary.

There is something about the way she has spread her fingers on the wall behind her ...

Be well.


Down.

Friday, 6 January 2012

They must be thinking they'll thread the needle.

(A-and win the Trifecta!)
Up, Down, Appendices, One more thing (or so).

Five Stars!Peter F. Sale - Our Dying Planet: An Ecologist's View of the Crisis We Face from University of California Press; with an excerpt: Chapter 1 (including the story of the Newfoundland cod fishery).

Our Dying Planet: An Ecologist's View of the Crisis We Face.Peter F. Sale.At Amazon.ca, Amazon US, and at Abe's. (Still not at the Toronto Public Library?)

A review of 'Our Dying Planet' in The Independent, September 11 2011; and, a November 29 2011 audio interview (40 minutes) with Michael Stone on KVMR Nevada.

Watch his schedule for upcoming events. More links in the previous post.

You raise up your head and you ask, “Is this where it is?” and somebody points to you and says, “It’s his,” and you say, “What’s mine?” and somebody else says, “Well, what is?” and you say, “Oh my God, am I here all alone?”

Reality Check #1: A researcher, or a scientist, or several teams of researchers & scientists ... someone ... takes the H5N1 bird-flu virus - now called 'A(H5N1)'? - and plays with it; and the next thing you know, we have:
"Biosecurity advisers to the American government, which paid for the research, have urged that full details not be published for fear that terrorists could make use of them. The World Health Organization warned Friday that while such studies were important, they could have deadly consequences."
     (NYT recently here & here)
So ... where are these 'security advisers' when it comes to the likes of Not-Lord Monckton & Nigel Lawson Baron of Blaby? Why are these purveyors of pernicious information not threatened with prevention?

Deadly consequences you say? Peter Sale guesstimates a balanced population for earth at about 3 billion. Is not the fate of the other 4-6 billion important enough for the security experts?


(A few more details on H5N1 from Gwynne Dyer: ... and creation of a deadly flu, December 26 2011.)
Reality Check #2: In a New Year's Day rant, Paul Krugman does 'the little black dress' of spiels for growth (a patter with pearls):
First, families have to pay back their debt. Governments don’t — all they need to do is ensure that debt grows more slowly than their tax base. The debt from World War II was never repaid; it just became increasingly irrelevant as the U.S. economy grew, and with it the income subject to taxation.
     (NYT recently below)
So ... it's not 'debt' at all then (if we believe the OED which stresses 'obligation to pay or render') and we need another word for whatever it is. What shall we call it? Let's stop calling it 'debt' because that is (understandably) confusing.

A-and what about the interest? The dragon Oroborus is eating its own tail. Interest, presumably compound, nicely represents the necessary acceleration in its rate of eating. If it eats quickly enough won't mouth meet anus eventually? This seems such a fitting image for current circumstances ... Waidaminit! Wasn't there a porno/horror flick with that plot recently? Is that it Paul?Th-th-th that's all folks.

Or ... it's the end of a Looney Tunes and Porky Pig is saying "Th-th-th that's all folks," and vanishing into a black hole (with a flush).

Rick Salutin: Politics as Entertainment video.Rick Salutin's rant: A minute and a bit - or the original (if you want to watch the ad). Amusing that a glitch at The Star silenced the ad for me - otherwise good production values were evident; and Noam Chomsky can't match him on understated sarcasm.

(Interesting ... I grabbed this video - poor quality, hand held - and posted it on YouTube so I could link to it here; and the next thing I find is an 'official' copy on YouTube from The Star with no ads, go figgure?! So I have now thrown away my copy - good for The Star.)

I spend a fair amout of time trying to imagine what people like Stephen Harper and Peter Kent (and Not-Lord Monckton & Nigel Lawson Baron of Blaby & Bjørn Lomborg & ...) can possibly be thinking.   (?)

Where can they be 'coming from'? Oh I know: it's greed, it's venality, it's habit, even it's fear, false pride, ignorance, stupidity; but none of these quite satisfy. For me it's like trying to imagine what drives a kiddie-diddler.

And once in a while I get a clue:

Back in the day I was hard up for cash in Peterborough - and with dependents.

First try was as a nude model at the local art school - 15 bucks an hour sounded good (for that time). I was worried that I might get an erection which would be embarassing. What I found was that I got chilled - the room was cool. But the woman running the show knew how to do things and called a break about the time I began to shiver. A skinny girl came over. I knew her by sight because she had out-bid me at an auction the week before on a cardboard box full of sheet music and records - the auctioneer called him 'Bobbie Dye-lon' - she went to $10 and I couldn't go $11, didn't have it. Anyway, she came over during the break and said, "You know that line in Leopard-Skin Pillbox Hat?" and I said, "Which one?" and she said, "I'd like to jump on it sometime." I was only saved because it so happened that I did not understand this idiom at the time.

Eventually, after a long and bitter struggle with the Chief of Police (over my long hair) I got a taxi licence and began to drive for City Cabs. It made $15 an hour look like a fortune.

One night - I had the big Merc, a full-sized car with all the fins which was the boss's personal ride most of the time - there was a bus, and a stale yellow light, and another car slowing for the light, and I tried to slide through between the car and the bus to run the yellow. Just about made it - didn't. The bus got me on the passenger side and about turned the taxi up on its side. Missed the other car - it stopped and then turned right around the front of the bus and went on. The bus backed up and the taxi came back to earth. Surprisingly the damage was not severe - passenger door & rocker panel completely crunched, that was it. Cops came - I got a ticket for something; the car was driveable so I went on back to the stand.

The next day the boss and I went up to the wrecker and got a door and put it in; pulled & beat at the rocker panel; sprayed on some primer to keep it from rusting. The door was a different colour but you couldn't really see the rocker panel and at the end of the day the car was OK. He got it repainted later that week.

All he said to me about it was: "Never pays to try and thread the needle - better just to take it slow and steady." He didn't even try to make me pay for it. That could have been difficult since I was just making it from one week to the next and the ticket alone about did me in - I guess he knew that. He was a 7th Day Adventist - I don't know if that had anything to do with it. A kind man. An adult. I never forgot him.

Ai Ai AI! These old-farts and their fricking stories!

Anyway, that's what I was wondering about this week. Stephen Harper & Peter Kent must know what is coming and they must be thinking if they can just gun that big Merc they'll thread the needle, slide through and deal with reducing CO2 emissions later-on another day. And maybe there are just enough back-seat sycophants around to make 'em feel OK with it. And the scientists are too measured by half - personally despairing but publicly equivocal except for a very few. And the environmentalists are so shrill an' lame an' all ...

Hell of a risk; deadly risk for so much and so many. Not even a risk; rapidly becoming a dead certainty:

WE HAVE UNTIL 2015 TO GET THIS UNDER CONTROL.
FOUR YEARS.

WHAT CAN WE DO?

(Is there anyone out there?     Anyone at all?)

How perverse is it?

I keep coming back to Paul (not Krugman, the other one) and his coals in Romans 12; not quite corresponding with a proper notion of what loving your enemies might mean. Twisted. Or ... There was a vision someone had in a bar one time of "God loving snakes!" but I can't know how true it was.

Or ... is all of this a fit of pique? In bold & CAPS an' all but substantively nothing more than bourgeois hand-wringing? A carry-on of childhood temper tantrums & 8-fold moxie transcendence morphed into a way to total self-destruction? Now that would be perverse, wouldn't it eh?      It's a possibility.

I like the term 'doom-monger', 'doomer' even moreso.

As a kid the 'weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth' of the whoremongers in the Old Testament got my attention. Given that iron-mongers sell, I thought whoremongers must be pimps. This made the moral clear & kept things safe & simple until the OED gave it away - a monger is a trader, trade could be buying or selling, maybe just kibbitzing in the marketplace - Uh Oh!

Eventually of course I met some whores - bound to happen - and that turned the whole thing on its head when they didn't: rob me, carry foul diseases, gibber with satanic glee, try to steal my kidneys - or not all of 'em at least. Could be I was lucky and clever enough to be chosen by gooders - who treated me kindly, laughed at my jokes, took me home to meet their kids; and continue truer friends to me (long after the money ran out) than, say, the bourgeois women I married. (All estimations of character being based upon qualities proven over time; and estimations being all we have.)

Curmudgeon can be imagined to have a derivation running through corn-monger (or not, see below) making it a Daily Double. And now ... doom-monger, doomer: someone who thinks the lemming-meisters are driving us towards the cliff and that the cliff is not far off. Whoopee! It's a monger Trifecta!

Yee-haw! Head-Smashed-In Buffalo Jump here we come! Yep. That sounds like it - or close enough for the girls I go with.

If anyone has a clue, the merest whisper of a rumour of a clue, a tiny hint, the wildest speculation around what to do about all of this I sincerely wish they would run it past me.

Be well gentle reader.


(Simply wrong according to the OED: The occurrence in Holland's Livy, 1600, of cornmudgin has led to a suggestion that this was the original form, with the meaning ‘concealer or hoarder of corn’, mudgin being associated with Middle English much-en, mich-en to pilfer, steal, or muchier, Norman form of Old French mucier, musser to conceal, hide away. But examination of the evidence shows that curmudgeon was in use a quarter of a century before Holland's date, and that cornmudgin is apparently merely a nonce-word of Holland's, a play upon corn and curmudgeon. The suggestion that the first syllable is cur, the dog, is perhaps worthy of note; but that of Dr. Johnson's ‘unknown correspondent’, coeur méchant for French méchant coeur, ‘evil or malicious heart’, is noticeable only as an ingenious specimen of pre-scientific etymology.
Wishful thinking on my part: Some may refer to certain species of evangelist and other rapture-seekers as 'doomers' but as time goes on and the language evolves these scurrilous definitions will be abandoned.)

One more thing: (or at least several, definitely)

Ahh, I see I forgot about Murphy the last time ... Oh well.

Five complicated stories:

1) A robbery (for cash & painkillers but they don't say which one) reported in the NYT with private guns everywhere ends with the robber & an interloper dead.

Barack Obama & Richard Cordray & onlooker.2) The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, in the NYT here & here: Obama, Elizabeth Warren (now a senate candidate), Richard Cordray. I like the expression on the guy clapping.

3) Tyler Brûlé - Mister Zeitgeist (in the NYT). A great idea, ideas, a small private fortune - except ... A 50's childhood so unconscious that we didn't even learn to hate gays - howJack Gerard, CEO of API. could we hate what didn't exist? And by the time they tried it on us it was too late for hate. But the 'except' stays.

4) More of Barack and the Keystone Trolls (it is definitely 'and' not 'vs.'): "Oil chief issues threat" says the Guardian. I guess it's a line of scrimmage metaphor but who watches football well enough to understand all of this shite?

Yvo de Boer, Durban COP17.5) If anyone has despaired it might well be Yvo de Boer; and yet he just keeps on putting his best foot forward (see below). A 1%-er who is pulling his weight.

I don't believe for a minute he thinks Durban was any kind of success. 'Breakthrough' could be a tactful slip of the tongue - preceded by one of his patented Dutch pauses.

A-and, a very long story:

I got interested in the Frade (pronounced 'fraud-ge') FPSO when it was looking like I would have to leave Brasil. I can't remember what the draw was - a rotating turret? And later on I gathered some information on it here.

Then I noticed that Brazil is having ructions with Chevron over a spill involving Frade to the tune of $20 billion; which led to a Guardian article on the $18 billion Chevron/Texaco/Equador judgement: Chevron accused of racism as it fights Ecuador pollution ruling with a picture of a guy I recognized, Pablo Fajardo.

"Racism?" I thought? Seems an odd accusation (not that it isn't true). And a bell went off - hadn't I already posted his story somewhere? I was sure I had researched Pablo Fajardo before - sure enough, back in my October 2009 archive I found some photographs & the Vanity Fair article but no evidence that I did anything with it. A few posts tagged 'Equador' showed me that I didn't even know how to spell it - Ecuador doh! But an hour or more searching line-by-line for traces led nowhere. Google is so undependable at searching - supposed to be their raison d'être too.

Oh well; you have to laugh, it's all so funny.

So, here's a very good article from May 2007 on the situation: Jungle Law by William Langewiesche; a good short video 60 Minutes - Amazon Crude (15 minutes) that aired May 1 2009 and definitely turned up the heat; a full-length movie in theatres September 2009, Crude (downloadable at Demonoid); a-and a few interesting personalities:

Steven Donziger.

Richard Cabrera.

Silvia Garrigo, Chevron lawyer.Silvia Garrigo, Chevron lawyer.Silvia Garrigo, Chevron lawyer.Silvia Garrigo, Chevron lawyer.Silvia Garrigo, a Chevron lawyer and 'Corporate Responsibility' person. I have known women with that shape of face who were not terriers - and if you watch the 60 Minutes clip carefully you will see that she is not tall. Here's something she said in 2011:
"Guided by The Chevron Way, which is anchored in getting results the right way—ethically and with integrity—our unyielding goal is to show that we can lead in providing safe and reliable supplies of energy and providing tangible and sustainable benefits to the communities in which we operate."
     (Corporate Responsibility at Chevron, final sentence)
David O'Reilly, Chairman and CEO of Chevron during some of the period of the struggle.

Ibsen's Peer Gynt (pronounced 'pair hoont') falls down in despair but then, at the last possible moment, the great Boyg disappears in a fizzle just like The Wicked Witch of the West saying, "He was too strong. There were women behind him."

And if it so happens they're women who were once upon a time in the game ... so be it, no problem.


Appendices:

1. Nobody Understands Debt, Paul Krugman, January 1 2012.

2. Ex-UN climate chief says business should get ready for low-carbon world, Fiona Harvey, Thursday 5 January 2012.



Nobody Understands Debt, Paul Krugman, January 1 2012.

In 2011, as in 2010, America was in a technical recovery but continued to suffer from disastrously high unemployment. And through most of 2011, as in 2010, almost all the conversation in Washington was about something else: the allegedly urgent issue of reducing the budget deficit.

This misplaced focus said a lot about our political culture, in particular about how disconnected Congress is from the suffering of ordinary Americans. But it also revealed something else: when people in D.C. talk about deficits and debt, by and large they have no idea what they’re talking about — and the people who talk the most understand the least.

Perhaps most obviously, the economic “experts” on whom much of Congress relies have been repeatedly, utterly wrong about the short-run effects of budget deficits. People who get their economic analysis from the likes of the Heritage Foundation have been waiting ever since President Obama took office for budget deficits to send interest rates soaring. Any day now!

And while they’ve been waiting, those rates have dropped to historical lows. You might think that this would make politicians question their choice of experts — that is, you might think that if you didn’t know anything about our postmodern, fact-free politics.

But Washington isn’t just confused about the short run; it’s also confused about the long run. For while debt can be a problem, the way our politicians and pundits think about debt is all wrong, and exaggerates the problem’s size.

Deficit-worriers portray a future in which we’re impoverished by the need to pay back money we’ve been borrowing. They see America as being like a family that took out too large a mortgage, and will have a hard time making the monthly payments.

This is, however, a really bad analogy in at least two ways.

First, families have to pay back their debt. Governments don’t — all they need to do is ensure that debt grows more slowly than their tax base. The debt from World War II was never repaid; it just became increasingly irrelevant as the U.S. economy grew, and with it the income subject to taxation.

Second — and this is the point almost nobody seems to get — an over-borrowed family owes money to someone else; U.S. debt is, to a large extent, money we owe to ourselves.

This was clearly true of the debt incurred to win World War II. Taxpayers were on the hook for a debt that was significantly bigger, as a percentage of G.D.P., than debt today; but that debt was also owned by taxpayers, such as all the people who bought savings bonds. So the debt didn’t make postwar America poorer. In particular, the debt didn’t prevent the postwar generation from experiencing the biggest rise in incomes and living standards in our nation’s history.

But isn’t this time different? Not as much as you think.

It’s true that foreigners now hold large claims on the United States, including a fair amount of government debt. But every dollar’s worth of foreign claims on America is matched by 89 cents’ worth of U.S. claims on foreigners. And because foreigners tend to put their U.S. investments into safe, low-yield assets, America actually earns more from its assets abroad than it pays to foreign investors. If your image is of a nation that’s already deep in hock to the Chinese, you’ve been misinformed. Nor are we heading rapidly in that direction.

Now, the fact that federal debt isn’t at all like a mortgage on America’s future doesn’t mean that the debt is harmless. Taxes must be levied to pay the interest, and you don’t have to be a right-wing ideologue to concede that taxes impose some cost on the economy, if nothing else by causing a diversion of resources away from productive activities into tax avoidance and evasion. But these costs are a lot less dramatic than the analogy with an overindebted family might suggest.

And that’s why nations with stable, responsible governments — that is, governments that are willing to impose modestly higher taxes when the situation warrants it — have historically been able to live with much higher levels of debt than today’s conventional wisdom would lead you to believe. Britain, in particular, has had debt exceeding 100 percent of G.D.P. for 81 of the last 170 years. When Keynes was writing about the need to spend your way out of a depression, Britain was deeper in debt than any advanced nation today, with the exception of Japan.

Of course, America, with its rabidly antitax conservative movement, may not have a government that is responsible in this sense. But in that case the fault lies not in our debt, but in ourselves.

So yes, debt matters. But right now, other things matter more. We need more, not less, government spending to get us out of our unemployment trap. And the wrongheaded, ill-informed obsession with debt is standing in the way.


Ex-UN climate chief says business should get ready for low-carbon world, Fiona Harvey, Thursday 5 January 2012.

Last month's Durban climate talks have given a strong signal that governments are serious about tackling global warming

Businesses should be putting plans in place this year to prepare for a low-carbon economy, having been given a strong signal from the latest climate change negotiations that governments are serious about tackling global warming, according to the former United Nations climate chief.

Yvo de Boer said the message from the Durban climate talks in December, which ended with a dramatic last-minute deal to forge a new legally binding climate agreement, was that businesses ought to press ahead with moves towards operating in a low-carbon world. He said that businesses should interpret the talks as a "clear signal that the international community is committed to taking the climate change agenda forward, that market-based mechanisms [such as carbon trading] will continue and that there will be clear reporting guidelines" on carbon dioxide emissions, which will affect companies.

De Boer, now special adviser on climate change to KPMG, was the architect of the Copenhagen climate summit of 2009, at which countries made voluntary commitments to cut their emissions by 2020. Many countries, green campaigners and businesses complained that the system of voluntary commitments did not provide the certainty needed to spur the development of a low-carbon economy across the globe.

The breakthrough at the Durban climate conference was that all countries, developed and developing, agreed to start work on a new worldwide agreement, to be signed in 2015, that would stipulate legally binding – not voluntary – emissions cuts to kick in from 2020.

De Boer told the Guardian that moves to create a global legally binding agreement were good for businesses. He said business leaders had stressed to him that they needed greater certainty from politicians, in order to make the right decisions to stay prosperous in the future. Only a global, legally binding agreement on the climate could provide the sort of guarantee that generates a wave of investment in greener technologies, and meaningful efforts to cut greenhouse gases. Such an agreement would also help to ensure there was a level playing field across in terms of business regulation – and this too would work to the advantage of companies, which could be reassured that their rivals were facing the same constraints.

He said that it was a "mistake" to think, as some people have argued, that a "bottom-up" approach – whereby countries and industry would make voluntary commitments to cut emissions – would be sufficient to reduce emissions by the drastic amounts needed in order to keep temperature rises within relatively safe levels.

His views are broadly shared by Lord (Nicholas) Stern, author of the landmark 2006 Stern review of the economics of climate change. Stern told the Guardian that the efforts of many businesses and nations so far to cut emissions would not have happened without the impetus given by the international negotiating process.

However, some close observers of the talks, including the UK's former chief scientific adviser Sir David King, take an opposing view, arguing that the annual climate talks that have been running for nearly two decades have borne little fruit and that nations should focus instead on a series of voluntary, non-binding pledges and on encouraging industry to cut emissions.

Stern also warned that the current pledges on greenhouse gas emissions from governments around the world would not be sufficient to stave off dangerous climate change, and must be strengthened.The Durban agreement was snatched at the last minute after the talks, which were supposed to end at teatime on 9 December, carried on through two more nights into the early hours of Sunday morning. A last-ditch compromise among the European Union, India and China over the wording of how a new agreement should be described – the words "legally binding" were replaced by "an agreed outcome with legal force" – enabled the talks to end in consensus.

"Slowly but surely, like it or not, the world is moving forward on climate change, with business now able to seriously calculate the implications of a low- carbon economy," De Boer said. "The meeting in Durban was its usual roller coaster ride, ending with a surprise commitment to continue the Kyoto Protocol, along with a raft of other climate change agreements. While the outcome has signalled a breakthrough for a political consensus on climate change, the outcome for business is only just becoming clear."

He said the agreement at Durban to continue with the Kyoto protocol beyond 2012, when its current provisions expire, would also have a big effect on many companies. "Business can be confident that market-based mechanisms such as the clean development mechanism [under which carbon credits are issued and sold] will continue," he said.

The clean development mechanism has generated billions of dollars in investment in low-carbon technologies around the world since it came into force in 2005, but in the last two years the investment pipeline has all but dried up, because of the uncertainty surrounding the future of the Kyoto protocol.

De Boer said the "Durban platform", the name given to the deal reached there to negotiate a new legal agreement, showed that "an international agreement for global action on climate change is within our reach and should therefore be considered within every forward looking business strategy".

He said: "With a pinch of luck, by 2015 [when the new agreement should be signed] the current economic crisis will be behind us, creating a more benign climate for governments to make commitments the world needs in order to tackle climate change effectively and business needs to survive and prosper."

But he warned that the science of climate change was becoming clearer, making it more obvious that our current efforts to cut emissions have been insufficient, and that much more needs to be done. "Our concrete actions have not taken us anywhere near where we need to be to keep temperature rises below 2ºC [which scientists regard as the limit of safety]," he said.

De Boer stressed the key role for business in tackling global warming, for instance through investments geared to cutting emissions in the developing world. At Durban, countries agreed most of the terms by which money can start to be released under the "green climate fund", under which $100bn a year in financing should flow from the rich to the poor world by 2020. "Prior to the conference it was unclear what role business would play in the fund; the worry was that the private sector would be sidelined," he said. "Thankfully, Durban saw confirmation that the fund will have a facility to fund private sector initiatives. It will seek actively to promote business involvement and catalyse further public and private money."

De Boer said this should mean more public-private partnerships in developing nations working on green growth, which should create jobs, alleviate poverty and improve infrastructure as well as tackling climate change.


Down.